Predicting Scholars' Scientific Impact

Amin Mazloumian

PLOS ONE, 2012, vol. 7, issue 11, 1-5

Abstract: We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of scientists. Our results show that i) among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii) future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately ( for a 1-year prediction, ) but iii) future citations of future work are hardly predictable.

Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0049246

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0049246

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