Predictors of Exacerbations in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease - Results from the Bergen COPD Cohort Study

Gunnar R Husebø, Per S Bakke, Marianne Aanerud, Jon A Hardie, Thor Ueland, Rune Grønseth, Louise J P Persson, Pål Aukrust and Tomas M Eagan

PLOS ONE, 2014, vol. 9, issue 10, 1-10

Abstract: Background: COPD exacerbations accelerate disease progression. Aims: To examine if COPD characteristics and systemic inflammatory markers predict the risk for acute COPD exacerbation (AECOPD) frequency and duration. Methods: 403 COPD patients, GOLD stage II-IV, aged 44–76 years were included in the Bergen COPD Cohort Study in 2006/07, and followed for 3 years. Examined baseline predictors were sex, age, body composition, smoking, AECOPD the last year, GOLD stage, Charlson comorbidity score (CCS), hypoxemia (PaO2 1 AECOPD last year before baseline [1.65 (1.24–2.21)], GOLD III [1.36 (1.07–1.74)], GOLD IV [2.90 (1.98–4.25)], chronic cough [1.64 (1.30–2.06)] and use of inhaled steroids [1.57 (1.21–2.05)]. For AECOPD duration more than three weeks, significant predictors after adjustment were: hypoxemia [0.60 (0.39–0.92)], years since inclusion [1.19 (1.03–1.37)], AECOPD severity; moderate [OR 1.58 (1.14–2.18)] and severe [2.34 (1.58–3.49)], season; winter [1.51 (1.08–2.12)], spring [1.45 (1.02–2.05)] and sTNF-R1 per SD increase [1.16 (1.00–1.35)]. Conclusion: Several COPD characteristics were independent predictors of both AECOPD frequency and duration.

Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0109721

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0109721

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