A Power-Law Growth and Decay Model with Autocorrelation for Posting Data to Social Networking Services

Toshifumi Fujiyama, Chihiro Matsui and Akimichi Takemura

PLOS ONE, 2016, vol. 11, issue 8, 1-14

Abstract: We propose a power-law growth and decay model for posting data to social networking services before and after social events. We model the time series structure of deviations from the power-law growth and decay with a conditional Poisson autoregressive (AR) model. Online postings related to social events are described by five parameters in the power-law growth and decay model, each of which characterizes different aspects of interest in the event. We assess the validity of parameter estimates in terms of confidence intervals, and compare various submodels based on likelihoods and information criteria.

Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0160592

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0160592

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