Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling

Raquel Martins Lana, Maíra Moreira Morais, Tiago França Melo de Lima, Tiago Garcia de Senna Carneiro, Lucas Martins Stolerman, Jefferson Pereira Caldas dos Santos, José Joaquín Carvajal Cortés, Álvaro Eduardo Eiras and Cláudia Torres Codeço

PLOS ONE, 2018, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: The goal of this study was to assess the goodness-of-fit of theoretical models of population dynamics of Aedes aegypti to trap data collected by a long term entomological surveillance program. The carrying capacity K of this vector was estimated at city and neighborhood level. Adult mosquito abundance was measured via adults collected weekly by a network of sticky traps (Mosquitraps) from January 2008 to December 2011 in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. K was the only free parameter estimated by the model. At the city level, the model with temperature as a driver captured the seasonal pattern of mosquito abundance. At the local level, we observed a spatial heterogeneity in the estimated carrying capacity between neighborhoods, weakly associated with environmental variables related to poor infrastructure. Model goodness-of-fit was influenced by the number of sticky traps, and suggests a minimum of 16 traps at the neighborhood level for surveillance.

Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0190673

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190673

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