Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic

Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Thomas J R Finnie, Barney Sloane and Ian M Hall

PLOS ONE, 2019, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-12

Abstract: Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework.

Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0211633

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211633

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