Prediction of viral symptoms using wearable technology and artificial intelligence: A pilot study in healthcare workers

Pierre-François D’Haese, Victor Finomore, Dmitry Lesnik, Laura Kornhauser, Tobias Schaefer, Peter E Konrad, Sally Hodder, Clay Marsh and Ali R Rezai

PLOS ONE, 2021, vol. 16, issue 10, 1-13

Abstract: Conventional testing and diagnostic methods for infections like SARS-CoV-2 have limitations for population health management and public policy. We hypothesize that daily changes in autonomic activity, measured through off-the-shelf technologies together with app-based cognitive assessments, may be used to forecast the onset of symptoms consistent with a viral illness. We describe our strategy using an AI model that can predict, with 82% accuracy (negative predictive value 97%, specificity 83%, sensitivity 79%, precision 34%), the likelihood of developing symptoms consistent with a viral infection three days before symptom onset. The model correctly predicts, almost all of the time (97%), individuals who will not develop viral-like illness symptoms in the next three days. Conversely, the model correctly predicts as positive 34% of the time, individuals who will develop viral-like illness symptoms in the next three days. This model uses a conservative framework, warning potentially pre-symptomatic individuals to socially isolate while minimizing warnings to individuals with a low likelihood of developing viral-like symptoms in the next three days. To our knowledge, this is the first study using wearables and apps with machine learning to predict the occurrence of viral illness-like symptoms. The demonstrated approach to forecasting the onset of viral illness-like symptoms offers a novel, digital decision-making tool for public health safety by potentially limiting viral transmission.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0257997

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257997

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