Search model based on Kalman Filter and Monte Carlo simulation

Jinhan Liu, Yujing Li and Xuhua Liu

PLOS ONE, 2026, vol. 21, issue 2, 1-24

Abstract: In the search and rescue operation of the submersible, to better search for the missing or faulty submersible, taking the marine environment simulated by the HYCOM model as the sample, it is necessary to use the Kalman filter model to predict the time location of the submersible and provide information support for the follow-up search and rescue operations according to the position information transmitted to the main ship when the submersible is running normally. Monte Carlo simulation is used to quantitatively analyze the probability of the possible area of the submersible in four possible cases after the fault, to obtain the location of the initial search deployment point, that is, the minimum plane projection area of the covering sample. Python software was used to quantitatively analyze the probability of finding the submersible with the passage of time and cumulative search results. Moreover, we conducted a comparative analysis of the method proposed in this paper with previous methods to illustrate the advancement of the method proposed in this paper. By introducing the nearest neighbor correlation algorithm into the multi-target tracking algorithm, the motion position of multiple submersibles in the same area can be predicted.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0339117

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0339117

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