Task-aware conformal power envelopes for multi-horizon spacecraft monitoring

Nan Lu, Lehan Cui and Xinian Zhi

PLOS ONE, 2026, vol. 21, issue 10, 1-14

Abstract: Reliable spacecraft power monitoring requires uncertainty estimates across forecast horizons and consistency between primitive electrical states and derived power. We present a task-aware conformal framework that selects joint residual geometry according to downstream power-envelope efficiency. A residual iTransformer produced point centres for five primitive electrical states at 1, 5, and 15 min. Candidate geometries were fitted, selected, and calibrated on chronologically separated complete-orbit blocks, and the final evaluation comprised 25,278 forecast origins from the chronologically subsequent July 2023 telemetry. Across three random-seed runs, the task-aware selector chose a joint box, whereas a residual-volume control selected the sample-covariance ellipsoid. Orbit-balanced primitive-state joint coverage was 0.892 (95% complete-orbit bootstrap confidence interval [CI], 0.883–0.899) at the 90% nominal level and 0.947 (95% CI, 0.943–0.952) at the 95% nominal level. At 90% and 95%, simultaneous coverage of both power channels across all horizons was 0.913 and 0.957. Relative to residual-volume selection, the task-aware method reduced normalized power interval score by 34.3% and 30.3%; the paired absolute reductions were 1.522 (95% CI, 1.505–1.540) and 1.552 (95% CI, 1.534–1.570). Power envelopes were computed from synchronized primitive current and bus-voltage sets. For the selected non-negative box, zero algebraic gap and full interval-image containment follow by construction; the empirical analyses quantify coverage and sharpness. The results demonstrate task-aware geometry selection for BUPT-1 multi-horizon power monitoring.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0360910

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0360910

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