Flood control of reservoir systems: Learning-based explicit and switched model predictive control approaches

Ja-Ho Koo, Ali Moradvandi, Edo Abraham, Andreja Jonoski and Dimitri P Solomatine

PLOS Water, 2025, vol. 4, issue 5, 1-31

Abstract: Effective reservoir flood control demands real-time decision-making that balances multiple objectives. However, traditional optimization approaches are often too computationally intensive and become intractable when considering dynamically changing preferences of operators, modelled as weights of different objectives. This study aims to develop tractable real-time flood control strategies that maintain performance while reducing computational complexity. We propose two data-driven approaches based on Model Predictive Control (MPC): (1) an explicit MPC using deep neural networks to directly determine optimal outflow schedules, and (2) a switched MPC that produces optimal weights of objectives based on hydrological conditions. Both methods leverage offline learning from an online Parameterized Dynamic MPC framework incorporating state-dependent weights. We tested these approaches on South Korea’s Daecheong multipurpose reservoir using historical flood events with various patterns. The explicit MPC demonstrated reliable performance under conditions similar to its training data. However, it showed frequent changes in outflow schedules and constraint violations for scenarios outside training data. In contrast, the switched MPC maintained robustness across all test scenarios due to a linear optimization process in a receding horizon manner, though with slightly reduced performance compared to the explicit MPC under scenarios inside the range of training data. Most significantly, both approaches reduced computation time from approximately 10 minutes to less than one second, making real-time implementation feasible. This dramatic improvement enables prompt decision-making during rapidly evolving flood events while maintaining near-optimal control performance.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pwat00:0000361

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000361

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