On the Conflict Mitigating Effects of Trade: The India-Pakistan Case

Dawood Mamoon and Murshed S. Mansoob

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We examine whether greater inter-state trade, democracy and reduced military spending lower belligerence between India and Pakistan. We begin with theoretical models covering the opportunity costs of conflict in terms of trade losses and security spending, as well as the costs of making concessions to rivals. Conflict between the two nations can be best understood in a multivariate framework where variables such as economic performance, integration with rest of the world, bilateral trade, military expenditure, democracy scores and population are simultaneously considered. Our empirical investigation based on time series econometrics from 1950-2005 suggests that reduced bilateral trade, greater military expenditure, less development expenditure, lower levels of democracy, lower growth rates and less general trade openness are all conflict enhancing. Globalization, or a greater openness to international trade with the rest of the world, is the most significant driver of a liberal peace, rather than a common democratic orientation suggested by the pure form of the democratic peace.

Keywords: Inter-state conflict and trade; democracy and conflict; conflict and economic development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C7 F15 F51 F52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-04-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10431/1/MPRA_paper_10431.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:10431

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().