Scenario Analysis of Laffer Curve (LC) for the Republic of Moldova in Context of 2020’s COVID-19

Denis Vîntu

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper aims to describe the economy of the Republic of Moldova from a neo-classical perspective, with an emphasis on the opening of the economy in a neo-Keynesian context. It was concluded that from the point of view of different indicators, the optimal model of accumulations to the state budget based on the Laffer curve is different: GDP-25 %, Inflation 30 %, Interest rate 20 %, unemployment rate 35 %, budget deficit 40 %, public debt 15% and exchange rate 44 % (maximum, which corresponds to the Nordic model of economic development). The research methods used by the author include identifying the trend of economic development, diagnostic analysis, scientifically based economic forecasting, ARIMA technique, extrapolation as regression analysis of time series The scientific and methodological approaches described in this work will serve as scientific support in the process of developing the scenarios of economic evolution.

Keywords: Laffer curve; GDP; inflation; interest rate; unemployment rate; budget deficit; public debt; exchange rate; extrapolation; ARIMA technique; Student test; Fisher. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H3 H30 H6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-03-25, Revised 2024-02-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-tra
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Published in Социально-экономическое пространство регионов. 2024. 18(1): 5-18. 1.1(2024): pp. 5-18

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