From fossils to footsteps: How green economic transitions shape migration patterns

Artem Yaroshevskyi

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study investigates how the transition to a green economy affects internal migration patterns across European Union regions. As carbon-intensive sectors decline due to decarbonization policies, certain regions experience structural economic changes that prompt labor reallocation and demographic shifts. Using a novel panel dataset at the NUTS-3 level (2011–2021), this paper estimates a series of random-effects models to assess how carbon-intensive regions differ in migration trends compared to unaffected areas. The analysis incorporates a range of socio-demographic and economic variables to test five hypotheses on the drivers of outmigration, including youth share, elderly population, regional wealth, and median male age. Results indicate that regions classified as “affected” by the green transition exhibit significantly higher outmigration rates. Moreover, interaction effects show that aging male populations amplify these migration trends, while other moderators—such as GDP per capita and youth share—have no significant impact. These findings contribute to the literature on just transitions by highlighting how demographic composition mediates the adverse effects of green restructuring. The paper emphasizes the need for targeted regional policies, particularly in aging and economically vulnerable areas, to ensure equitable outcomes of green economic transitions.

Keywords: Green transition; internal migration; carbon-intensive regions; demographic structure; panel data; just transition; NUTS-3 regions; labor mobility. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q20 Q40 Q50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-05-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mig and nep-tid
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