Impact of weather variability on crop yields and land use dynamics in Odisha, India: Short-and long-term effects

Pratap Kumar Jena, Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh, Souryabrata Mohapatra and Ashok Mishra

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Weather variability disrupts food grain production and agricultural sustainability. While existing literature highlights the stationary relationship between weather variables and agricultural outcomes, it often overlooks their bearing on land use changes. This study investigates the dynamic effects of weather variations on crop yields, farmland use and intensity in Odisha, India, using district-level data from 2001-18. By employing a panel autoregressive distributive lag model, we assess long-and short-term relationships between weather parameters and agricultural yields. Results reveal a negative yield elasticity to rainfall deviation, ranging from-0.16 for wheat to-0.48 for green gram in the long term. In the short term, however, elasticity is positive for some pulses (green gram, urad) and oilseeds (groundnuts). Rainfall deviation and maximum temperature adversely affect the rate and intensity of farmland use but enhance crop diversification in both the short and long term.

Keywords: Climate change; Crop yield response; Land use intensity; Panel ARDL model; Odisha, India (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 Q15 Q18 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
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