Risk Assesment of Companies and Banks Exposed to the German Automotive Industry in a Small Open Economy

Aljoša Ortl and Miha Sajinčič

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Recent concerns about the German automotive slowdown and related US tariffs pose risks for small open economies. We focus on Slovenian companies integrated into these supply chains. Using comprehensive data-intensive analysis, we define “companies at risk” as companies operating in the automotive sector with at least 10% of revenues from German trade receivables. They account for approximately 2% of total bank exposures, 5.3% of value added, and 5% of operating revenues. At the municipal level, several clusters with higher concentrations of such firms are identified. To address data limitations and the arbitrariness of our classification, we conduct robustness checks. Using input–output tables, we also assess potential spillover effects across supply chains. Our granular company-level approach provides valuable insights for potential policy responses targeting the real economy, banking system, and/or local municipalities.

Keywords: German automotive industry; input–output analysis; supply chains; companies at risk; potential risks; risk evaluation for banks; credit and economic risk assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 G32 L62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-08-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-rmg and nep-tra
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:126321

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