Grassland Restoration Increases Agricultural Yields through Microclimate Regulation

Min Liu, Kaixing Huang, Jizhe Wang and David Wuepper

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Ecosystem restoration is often perceived as competing with agricultural production, yet this perception neglects potential synergies emerging from biophysical feedbacks. Here, we demonstrate that large-scale grassland restoration under China’s Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy (GECP) significantly enhances maize yields by regulating local microclimate. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design with county-level panel data, we show that restored grasslands reduced average growing-season temperatures by approximately 0.11℃ and increased precipitation by 11.48mm, thereby suppressing extreme heat and drought during critical reproductive stages. These changes extended the maize reproductive growth period by 0.93 days, elevating yields by 7.76% (0.437t/ha) and reducing crop failure risk by 25.9%. Economically, the yield gains alone offset over 80% of program costs within five years, and the additional production could alleviate nearly 10% of China's maize import deficit in the Northern Spring Maize Region. Our findings overturn the conventional trade-off narrative between conservation and agri culture, positioning ecosystem restoration as a scalable strategy for climate resilient food security.

Keywords: ecosystem restoration; agricultural production; climate change adaptation; grassland; China; cost-benefit analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q18 Q54 Q57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-11-30
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