Between solidarity and concern: Refugee inflow and crime perception

David Zuchowski and Mateus Maciel

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Most empirical research finds that immigration has no effect on crime. Nevertheless, public concerns about immigration and crime persist, possibly driven by misperceptions. In this paper, we examine how an immigration shock affects crime perception. Specifically, we analyze the impact of the sudden and large-scale arrival of Ukrainian refugees in Poland following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Using unique data on reported safety concerns, we find a persistent decline in perceived risk in regions more affected by the refugee inflow. We provide additional evidence that this effect stems from a shift in local crime perception due to exposure to war refugees, rather than from a reduction in actual safety threats.

Keywords: Crime; Crime Perception; Safety Concerns; Refugee Migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J15 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-11-20
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:127411

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