Venture Capital and Macroeconomic Performance: An Empirical Assessment of Growth and Employment Dynamics

Muhammad Adil Iqbal, Amjad Ali and Marc Audi

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study investigates the influence of venture capital investments and their proportion relative to gross domestic product on two key macroeconomic variables: gross domestic product growth rate and unemployment rate. By analyzing data from 13 countries over the period 2014 to 2021, the research seeks to clarify the impact of venture capital metrics using a range of statistical techniques, including descriptive statistics, correlation and covariance assessments, panel ordinary least squares, and panel generalized method of moments. The results from the panel ordinary least squares regression indicate that both dependent variables, gross domestic product growth rate and unemployment rate, exhibit limited explanatory power concerning the impact of venture capital metrics. Even after controlling for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation, and incorporating dynamic specifications and endogeneity adjustments, the results remain largely unchanged. The empirical findings further indicate that gross domestic product growth rates are non-stationary, while unemployment rates are stationary, underscoring the greater importance of structural and policy-driven factors in shaping economic performance. The only notable result from this analysis is the significant persistence of gross domestic product growth rates through their own lagged values, which emphasizes the primacy of historical economic trends over external capital inflows. Overall, the results reveal that venture capital metrics do not have a statistically significant or economically meaningful effect on either gross domestic product growth rate or unemployment rate. These findings challenge the commonly held assumption that venture capital metrics directly influence or enhance key macroeconomic indicators. Consequently, policymakers should view venture capital investments as secondary rather than primary drivers of economic growth and employment, and should instead prioritize comprehensive strategies focused on education, labor market reforms, and institutional development to achieve sustained macroeconomic progress.

Keywords: Venture Capital; Artificial Intelligence; Research and Development; Economic Growth; Employment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O3 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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