Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Missouri

Gustavo Gomez-Sorzano

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder of Missouri State (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincide with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder shows that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have affected Missouri, creating estimated turning point dates marked by the most tragic terrorist attacks to the nation: the shut down in power in NYC in 1965, the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001 This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Missouri. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf, Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf, Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf., California http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4547/01/MPRA_paper_4547.pdf., Washington http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4604/01/MPRA_paper_4604.pdf., Ohio http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4605/01/MPRA_paper_4605.pdf., Philadelphia City, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4783/01/MPRA_paper_4783.pdf, Arkansas http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4606/01/MPRA_paper_4606.pdf These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.

Keywords: A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C51 C88 D74 H56 N42 O51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-01-30, Revised 2007-09-15
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