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A demand-driven search model with self-fulfilling expectations: The new `Farmerian' framework under scrutiny

Paolo Gelain and Marco Guerrazzi

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this paper, we implement Bayesian econometric techniques to analyze a theoretical framework built along the lines of Farmer's micro-foundation of the General Theory. Specifically, we test the ability of a demand-driven search model with self-fulfilling expectations to match the behaviour of the US economy over the last thirty years. The main findings of our empirical investigation are the following. First, all over the period, our model fits data very well. Second, demand shocks are the most relevant in explaining the variability of concerned variables. In addition, our estimates reveal that a large negative demand shock caused the Great Recession via a sudden drop of confidence. Overall, those results are consistent with the main features of the New 'Farmerian' Economics as well as to latest demand-side explanations of the finance-induced recession.

Keywords: New Farmerian Economics; Competitive search; Dynamic models; Bayesian estimation. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E32 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-05-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-lab and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: A demand-driven search model with self-fulfilling expectations: the new 'Farmerian' framework under scrutiny (2015) Downloads
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