Developing the concept of Sustainable Peace using Econometrics and scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019

Gustavo Gomez-Sorzano

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper belongs to my research program on violence and terrorism started in 1993, as a consequence of the growing concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s. After 14 years of research, particularly after developing a model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia 1950-2004, forecasts 2005-2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2005, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/134/01/MPRA_paper_134.pdf), the econometrics of violence, terrorism, and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2006, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/539/01/MPRA_paper_539.pdf), and Scenarios for Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2006B, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/135/01/MPRA_paper_135.pdf) , I claim in this paper that I have formally developed the concept of Sustainable Peace using advanced econometrics. The concept of Sustainable Peace is thus presented to the international academic community, and is based in the construction of a structural econometric model for National murder, and a model for cyclical terrorist murder that have been simultaneously used for designing Scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019.

Keywords: sustainable peace; scenarios for sustainable peace; scenarios granting sustainable peace; a model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; democratic security policy; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; the econometrics of violence, terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C2 C22 C51 C52 C53 C82 C87 D63 D7 D74 D9 H44 H56 K42 N46 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-04-06, Revised 2007-11-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev
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