Predictable markets? A news-driven model of the stock market

Maxim Gusev, Dimitri Kroujiline, Boris Govorkov, Sergey V. Sharov, Dmitry Ushanov and Maxim Zhilyaev

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We attempt to explain stock market dynamics in terms of the interaction among three variables: market price, investor opinion and information flow. We propose a framework for such interaction and apply it to build a model of stock market dynamics which we study both empirically and theoretically. We demonstrate that this model replicates observed market behavior on all relevant timescales (from days to years) reasonably well. Using the model, we obtain and discuss a number of results that pose implications for current market theory and offer potential practical applications.

Keywords: stock market; market dynamics; return predictability; news analysis; language patterns; investor behavior; herding; business cycle; sentiment evolution; reference sentiment level; volatility; return distribution; Ising; agent‐based models; price feedback; nonlinear dynamical systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 G1 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-04-24
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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