Construcción de una Bolivia artificial: Efectos de la Política Económica desde 2006

Construction of an artificial Bolivia: Effects of the Economic Policy since 2006

Joab Valdivia Coria and Daney David Valdivia Coria

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In recent years the need arose to assess the effects of the policies implemented since 2006 in Bolivia. A document that refutes the results achieved by the government of Evo Morales (Chumacero R., 2019), indicates that the growth achieved between 2006 and 2016 was luck. However, the characteristics and assumptions indicated in that document can be for any economy, because it omits characteristics of the Bolivian economy. In this sense, our proposal, through the application of the synthetic control method, encompasses 24 predictors, divided into 5 dimensions, where idiosyncratic variables that characterize the Bolivian economy are identified, for example, income by mineral and natural gas. The results of the methodology indicate a close coincidence between Bolivia observed and synthetic Bolivia pretreatment, before 2005. From 2008 there is a greater difference between the real and counterfactual per capita GDP, showing positive effects of the policies implemented by the government of Evo Morales (2006 - 2016), on average 6% above synthetic Bolivia, resulting in USD333 (measured in Purchasing Power Parity).

Keywords: Bolivia; Synthetic Control; pre-treatment predictors; post-treatment effect; 2006. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 C63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-10-19
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