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Forecasting Saudi Arabia’s Non-Oil GDP Using a Bayesian Mixed Frequency VAR

Jeremy Rothfield and Mansour Al
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Mansour Al: King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

Discussion Papers from King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

Abstract: Bayesian vector autoregressions have been used by central banks to prepare short-term projections of quarterly GDP and other macroeconomic variables. The Bayesian approach offers the advantage that a researcher can use a priori knowledge to specify a prior distribution of the parameters. In this paper, we have combined monthly data for Saudi Arabia with quarterly fiscal and GDP variables to produce forecasts over an approximate 12-month period.

Keywords: Economic; Growth; and; Convergence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28
Date: 2024-05-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-for
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https://www.kapsarc.org/research/publications/fore ... mixed-frequency-var/ First version, 2024

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2024-dp17

DOI: 10.30573/KS--2024-DP17

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