Monetary Policy Stance and Future Inflation: The Case of Czech Republic

Roman Horvath ()
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Roman Horvath: Czech National Bank

ACTA VSFS, 2008, vol. 2, issue 1, 80-106

Abstract: This paper examines time-varying policy neutral interest rate in real time for the Czech Republic in 2001:1-2006:09 estimating various specifications of simple Taylor-type monetary policy rules. For this reason, we apply a structural time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. The results indicate that policy neutral rate gradually decreased over sample period to the levels comparable to those of in the euro area. Next, we propose a measure of monetary policy stance based on a difference between the actual interest rate and estimated policy neutral rate and find it a useful predictor of the level as well as change of future inflation rate.

Keywords: policy neutral rate; Taylor rule; time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:prf:journl:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:80-106

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