New methods risk management of investment projects

Viktorie Ostrousko

Ekonomika a Management, 2009, vol. 2009, issue 4

Abstract: The adoption of investment solutions uncertainty factors provide project risk, i.e. the risk of loss of resources, incomplete acquisition of the required income and occurrence unexpected expenses. The presence of different types uncertainty brings us to the need to adapt the indicators of efficiency valuation of investment projects by using of mathematical methods that allow to formalize different types of uncertainty. Among the various methods of modeling under uncertainty it is possible to allocate three basic approaches: probability, fuzzy-set theory and expert estimation. As shown by the world experience, the effectiveness using of methods based on probability, fuzzy sets and expert estimation depends on the level and character of uncertainty associated with a particular tasks. Indeed, increasing uncertainty classical probabilistic description retreat place of subjective probability based on expert estimation, or fuzzy set interval descriptions denote by membership function. This article shows the uniqueness of fuzzy set intervals descriptions based on the principles of fuzzy logic in evaluation the economic efficiency of investment projects compared to older classic method.

Keywords: nejistota; teorie fuzzy množin; expertní odhady; pravděpodobnost; funkce příslušnosti; uncertainty; fuzzy set theory; expert estimation; probability; membership function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D46 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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