Democratic Backsliding Damages Foreign Public Support for Security Cooperation

Rikio Inouye, Yusaku Horiuchi, Eun Jo and Kelly Matush
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Rikio Inouye: Princeton University
Yusaku Horiuchi: Florida State University
Eun Jo: William and Mary
Kelly Matush: Florida State University

Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) Working Papers from Empirical Studies of Conflict Project

Abstract: Does democratic backsliding shape foreign public preferences for security cooperation with the backsliding state? Existing studies suggest that US backsliding reduces favorability abroad but leaves support for other foreign policy initiatives largely unchanged. In this note, we argue that this evidence comes from “least likely†domains: the risks citizens face on these issues are relatively independent of a partner country’s backsliding. We instead study intelligence sharing, a form of security cooperation that is directly vulnerable to erosion of trust, procedures, and shared values. A preregistered survey experiment with nearly 6,000 respondents across the United States’ Five Eyes partners shows that information about democratic backsliding in a partner country consistently reduces public support for intelligence sharing. Domestic political deterioration can weaken the public foundations of international collaboration, with far-reaching implications for security cooperation and alliance cohesion.

Keywords: democratic backsliding; intelligence sharing; security cooperation; the United States; Five Eyes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-11
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pri:esocpu:40

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