The Production and Consumption of Commercial Real Estate Market Forecasts

Paul Gallimore and Pat McAllister ()
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Paul Gallimore: School of the Built environment, Nottingham Trent University
Pat McAllister: Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading

Real Estate & Planning Working Papers from Henley Business School, University of Reading

Abstract: Whilst the vast majority of the research on property market forecasting has concentrated on statistical methods of forecasting future rents, this report investigates the process of property market forecast production with particular reference to the level and effect of judgemental intervention in this process. Expectations of future investment performance at the levels of individual asset, sector, region, country and asset class are crucial to stock selection and tactical and strategic asset allocation decisions. Given their centrality to investment performance, we focus on the process by which forecasts of rents and yields are generated and expectations formed. A review of the wider literature on forecasting suggests that there are strong grounds to expect that forecast outcomes are not the result of purely mechanical calculations.

Keywords: Real Estate; Forecast; Real Estate Markets; Commercial Real Estate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2005
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