Effects on school enrollment and performance of a conditional transfers program in Mexico

Pierre Dubois, Alain de Janvry () and Elisabeth Sadoulet ()

Economics Working Paper Archive (Toulouse) from French Institute for Agronomy Research (INRA), Economics Laboratory in Toulouse (ESR Toulouse)

Abstract: We study the effects of a conditional transfers program on school enrollment and performance in Mexico. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing the dynamic educational decision and process including the endogeneity and uncertainty of performance (passing grades) and the effect of a conditional cash transfer program for children enrolled at school. Careful identification of the program impact on this model is studied. This framework is used to study the Mexican social program Progresa in which a randomized experiment has been implemented and allows us to identify the effect of the conditional cash transfer program on enrollment and performance at school. Using the rules of the conditional program, we can explain the different incentive effects provided. We also derive the formal identifying assumptions needed to provide consistent estimates of the average treatment effects on enrollment and performance at school. We estimate empirically these effects and find that Progresa had always a positive impact on school continuation whereas for performance it had a positive impact at primary school but a negative one at secondary school, a possible consequence of disincentives due to the program termination after the third year of secondary school. ...French Abstract : Les auteurs étudient les effets d'un programme de transferts conditionnels sur l'inscription et la performance a l'école au Mexique. Ils élaborent un modèle théorique permettant d'analyser les décisions dynamiques d'éducation tenant compte de l'endogénéité et de l'incertitude sur la performance (redoublement) et l'effet d'un programme conditionnel de transferts pour les enfants inscrits à l'école. L'identification de l'impact du programme sur ce modèle est étudiée. Ce modèle est utilisé pour étudier le programme social mexicain Progresa dans lequel une expérience randomisée a été implémentée et permet d'identifier les effets du programme conditionnel de transferts sur l'inscription et la performance à l'école. En utilisant les règles du programme conditionnel, les auteurs peuvent expliquer les différents effets incitatifs. Ils dérivent aussi les conditions d'identification formelles nécessaires pour obtenir des estimations sans biais de l'effet de traitement moyen sur l'inscription et la performance à l'école. Ils estiment empiriquement ces effets et trouvent que Progresa a toujours un impact positif sur la probabilité de continuer l'école alors que pour la performance il a un impact positif à l'école primaire mais négatif au secondaire, ce qui peut être une conséquence des effets désincitatifs dus à l'arrêt du programme après la troisième année du secondaire.

Keywords: EDUCATION DEMAND; SCHOOLING DECISIONS; SCHOOL PERFORMANCE; DYNAMIC DECISIONS; TREATMENT EFFECTS; TRANSFER PROGRAM; RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENT; MODELE ECONOMETRIQUE; PROGRAMME D'ENSEIGNEMENT; INTEGRATION SOCIALE; PERFORMANCE; RENOVATION PEDAGOGIQUE; MEXIQUE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C25 D91 H52 I21 I28 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 p.
Date: 2002
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lam and nep-pbe
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Related works:
Working Paper: Effects on School Enrollment and Performance of a Conditional Transfers Program in Mexico (2011)
Working Paper: Effects on School Enrollment and Performance of a Conditional Transfers Program in Mexico (2003)
Working Paper: Effects on School Enrollment and Performance of a Conditional Transfers Program in Mexico (2003)
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