The Economic Consequences of R= 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics

Joshua S. Gans
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Joshua S. Gans: "Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto and NBER"

Review of Economic Analysis, 2022, vol. 14, issue 1, 3-25

Abstract: "This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics. While modelling behaviour by forward-looking rational agents can provide some insight into the time paths of pandemics, the non-stationary nature of Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) models of viral spread makes characterisation of resulting equilibria difficult. Here I posit a shortcut that can be deployed to allow for a tractable equilibrium model of pandemics with intuitive comparative statics and also a clear prediction that effective reproduction numbers (that is, R) will tend towards 1 in equilibrium. This motivates taking R= 1 as an equilibrium starting point for analyses of pandemics with behavioural agents. The implications of this for the analysis of widespread testing, tracing, isolation and mask-use is discussed."

Keywords: "epidemiology; basic reproduction number; SIR model; rational behaviour; pandemic policy" (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ren:journl:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:3-25

DOI: 10.15353/rea.v14i1

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