Reflections on the Assumptions of Finland's Population Forecast in the Exceptional Year of 2024

Juha Alho

No 142, ETLA Brief from The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy

Abstract: Abstract The updating of the Statistics Finland population forecast occurred in an exceptionally difficult circumstance, in 2024. What would be the effect of COVID19 on mortality and immigration? Will the collapse of fertility that started in 2010, continue? Also the war in Ukraine, and the structural change in immigration, had to be assessed for the drawing up of a trend forecast. In a critical evaluation, the choices made by the forecasters regarding mortality, fertility, and the immigration in the first coming years appear well founded. Using tools of statistical time-series analysis, the level of net migration for 2022–2023 was estimated. This can be taken as the estimate of the level over the long term, in a trend forecast. The estimate is 24 000. This is lower than 40 000 that was used in the update. In a comparison to the recent forecasts in Norway and Sweden, we find that even this level is higher than that assumed in those countries. The conclusion is to produce an alternate update that replicates the assumptions of Statistics Fin- land as regards mortality, fertility, and short-term net migration, but assumes that the long-term level of net migration equals 24 000.

Keywords: Fertility; Immigration; Mortality; Net migration; Trend forecast uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D24 J31 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2024-11-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-mig
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