Determinants of Türkiye’s Liner Shipping Connectivity Index: Uncertainty, Trade, and Exchange Rates

Barış Ülker
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Barış Ülker: Dicle University

Business and Economics Research Journal, 2026, vol. 17, issue 3, 359-376

Abstract: This study examines the impact of global uncertainty, foreign trade volume, and the real effective exchange rate on Türkiye’s Liner Shipping Connectivity Index. It applies a partially asymmetric NARDL model to quarterly data for 2010Q1-2025Q3 period. The results show that global uncertainty is positively associated with liner shipping connectivity in both the short and long run. Import volume emerges as the dominant long run determinant of connectivity, with import contractions exerting a stronger negative effect than the positive effect generated by expansions. Export expansion affects liner shipping connectivity only over longer horizons while real appreciation provides statistically weak evidence of a positive effect on connectivity. These findings indicate Türkiye’s maritime connectivity is shaped by asymmetric and horizon dependent mechanisms beyond trade volume alone. Overall, the results suggest that liner shipping rigidity, carrier adjustment behavior, import dependence, supply chain resilience and Türkiye’s strategic transit position are important factors in explaining maritime connectivity dynamics. They also suggest that policy priorities should include stable import related cargo flows, service continuity, port efficiency and readiness for route reconfiguration within changing global liner shipping networks.

Keywords: Liner Shipping Connectivity Index; Global Uncertainty; Trade Volume; Exchange Rates; Asymmetry (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F14 R41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:buecrj:023234

DOI: 10.20409/berj.2026.502

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