Küresel Gıda ve Petrol Fiyatlarının Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye’den Ampirik Kanıtlar (The Effect of Global Food and Oil Prices on Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye)

Hatice Bozkurt
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Hatice Bozkurt: Ordu University

Business and Economics Research Journal, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 21-41

Abstract: Inflation is one of the most important instability indicators that disrupts macroeconomic stability. In this study, the effects of global food prices, oil prices, exchange rates (US$/TRY), and money supply on inflation in the Turkish economy are examined. Using monthly data for the period 2010M01-2021M09, the cointegration relationships between variables were tested with the fractional frequency Fourier bootstrap ARDL approach. The findings showed that the consumer price index, global food price index, oil prices, exchange rate, and money supply variables have a cointegration relationship. The exchange rate is the variable that has the strongest effect on inflation in the long term. Short-term deviations from the balance return to the long-term balance in approximately five and a half months. The findings are consistent with the error correction-based Granger causality test results. Based on the results, it can be argued that inflation in Türkiye is caused by the exchange rate and money supply rather than global food and energy prices.

Keywords: Inflation; Global Food Prices; Oil Prices; Exchange Rate; Fractional Frequency Fourier Bootstrap ARDL Approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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