Power Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition

Evgeny Vinokurov, Arman Akhunbaev, Demir Kabylbaev, Stanislav Chuev and T. Sarsembekov
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Evgeny Vinokurov: Eurasian Development Bank
Arman Akhunbaev: Eurasian Development Bank
Demir Kabylbaev: Eurasian Development Bank
Stanislav Chuev: Eurasian Development Bank
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Евгений Юрьевич Винокуров

Working Papers from Eurasian Development Bank

Abstract: The report analyzes the transformation of Central Asia’s energy sector and proposes a “middle path” strategy. It is based on the World Energy Council’s energy trilemma concept — the balance among security, affordability, and environmental sustainability. Against the backdrop of the global energy transition, with a record 585 GW of green capacity installed worldwide in 2024, Central Asia is facing rapid growth in electricity demand (up to +40% by 2030), high wear and tear on infrastructure (up to 70% of networks and thermal power plants) and dependence on coal and gas. At the same time, the region has enormous potential for the development of RE sources — solar, wind and hydro power — as well as opportunities for the introduction of nuclear and gas hybrid capacities. The proposed “middle path” strategy is based on a pragmatic combination of modernizing traditional generation, phased development of RE sources, introduction of energy storage systems and digitalization, as well as restoration of regional integration of energy systems to balance seasonal and resource differences. This approach will enable Central Asian countries to ensure reliable and affordable energy supplies, reduce their carbon footprint, strengthen energy security, and lay the foundation for sustainable economic growth in the 21st century.

Keywords: Central Asia; electric power industry; RE; energy transition; water-energy balance; sustainable development; “middle path” (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 E17 L81 L91 R33 R42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 117
Date: 2026-03-19
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