Trade Balances of the Asian Countries under Crisis: Forecast and Evaluation

Ingyo Cheong
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Ingyo Cheong: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

East Asian Economic Review, 1998, vol. 2, issue 2, 69-106

Abstract: To overcome the financial crisis, we need to do some reform, such as to change the governmental and non-governmental structure, make sure the policy to be transparent, and remove restrictions, etc. All these measures can restore the confidence of foreign investors towards Korea. But to make balance of the trade surplus and keep foreign exchange reserve at a reasonable level, ensure foreign exchange and the security of financial department is one of the most urgent topics. Since the deep relationship of economy among countries in North-East Asia, financial crisis is not only the problem in Korea. It is already expended to the whole North-East Asia. This thesis shows the idea that we can forecast surplus in the trade balance scale, enlarge the trade balance of South Korea and activate export. It also shows that instead of the increase of export, the surplus is caused by the decrease of import. At this point of view, the number of surplus is not true. If the investment keeps decreasing like this, the foundation of Korean Economy will collapse.

Keywords: Asian Financial Crisis; Asia Countries; Trade Policy Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998
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