Integration Doughnut or a Hole? Economic Effects of European Union Enlargement on its Eastern Member Countries 2001-2025

Miroslav N. Jovanović and Paskal Zhelev
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Miroslav N. Jovanović: University of Geneva, Global Studies Institute, Sidjanski Centre for European Studies - Switzerland
Paskal Zhelev: Department of International Economic Relations and Business, University of National and World Economy, Sofia - Bulgaria

Economia Internazionale / International Economics, 2026, vol. 79, issue 3, 277-342

Abstract: The European Union (EU) hails enlargement as one of its greatest successes, promising prosperity and convergence. Yet, two decades after the eastern enlargement, worthy economic results are evident, as well as cracks. While accession spurred growth and wealth, it also entrenched structural vulnerabilities – rising debt, demographic collapse and deepening internal disparities. The East was expected to catch up with the ‘old’ EU countries. GDP per capita has slowly converged, but much of it remains locked in a dependent model, with skilled labour flowing westwards, while financial obligations mount. Using a structured statistical analysis rather than econometric modelling, this paper exposes the uneven realities in the EU membership. Integration has lifted national economies, but widened gaps within them, concentrating wealth and opportunity in capital cities while rural and industrial peripheries lag. Meanwhile, the EU’s own cohesion is fraying, burdened by crises, militarisation, policy contradictions and enlargement fatigue. As candidate countries in the Western Balkans and the Black Sea region consider their EU future, important lessons emerge.

Keywords: European Union; Eastern Enlargement; Central and Eastern Europe; New Member Countries; Economic Integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 F50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:ecoint:023523

DOI: 10.65644/EIIE.079.03.0277

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