From Flows to Stocks: Dynamic Causal Effects of Native and Immigrant Inflows in Korea‘s Declining Regions

Juno Kim
Additional contact information
Juno Kim: Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade

Industrial Economic Review from Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade

Abstract: South Korea’s demographic crisis is compounded by an acute spatial imbalance, with the working-age population increasingly concentrated in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA). As policy shifts toward attracting both natives and immigrants to non-capital regions, this study estimates the dynamic causal effects of inflows on local population stocks in those regions.

Using local projections with shift-share IVs, inflows of native working-age residents raise total and working-age population stocks in the short run, with effects persisting into the medium term but fading and becoming statistically insignificant after six periods. By contrast, immigrant inflows show no significant short-to-medium-run effects on native population stocks, though a decline appears at period 6, driven mainly by the working-age group.

Keywords: demographics; demographic change; aging; migration; in-migration; regional economics; regional development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q56 R11 R12 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in KIET Industrial Economic Review Vol. 31, No. 1

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.kiet.re.kr/en/pub/ecoreviewDetailView? ... ar=2026&month=&sval=
All articles available for download at www.kiet.re.kr.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:kieter:022558

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Industrial Economic Review from Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade Sejong National Research Complex, Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, 370 Sicheong Dae-ro C-dong 8-12F 30147, Republic of Korea. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Aaron Crossen ().