Geographical Propagation of the Economic Impacts of the ISIS Conflict in Iraq

Inácio Araújo, Kieran P. Donaghy, Eduardo Haddad and Geoffrey Hewings
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Kieran P. Donaghy: Department of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University

No 6-2024, TD NEREUS from Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS)

Abstract: This study develops a methodology to assess the effects of extreme events. This method measures the geographic propagation of indirect impacts of disasters through supply chains. This modeling framework incorporates an inter-regional input-output system to calibrate a computable general equilibrium model. Our methodological approach includes examining the supply and demand constraints caused by the disruptive event. We also model regional resilience through input substitution possibilities. To illustrate the applicability of the methodology, we analyze the higher-order effects of the regional ISIS-created conflict in Iraq between 2014 and 2017. We also extend the general equilibrium model to downscale Iraq’s national economic accounts to the regional level. This strategy projects the post-conflict Iraqi economy at a granular level of spatial aggregation. The model produced for this analysis offers policymakers simulations to identify economic vulnerabilities at the regional and industrial levels and explore alternatives to mitigate the damage caused by extreme events.

Keywords: armed conflict; costs of war; risk analysis; disruptive events; higher-order impacts; CGE model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 R13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2024-08-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cmp and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:nereus:2024_006

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