Structural changes in the export-import turnover of the Russian Federation under sanctions

Tatyana O. Grafova and Astkhik G. Bulgadaryan
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Tatyana O. Grafova: Rostov State University of Railways
Astkhik G. Bulgadaryan: Russian Customs Academy

Economic Consultant, 2025, issue 1, 60-75

Abstract: Introduction. The relevance of structural changes in Russia’s export-import turnover under sanctions is driven by the necessity to ensure economic stability, diversify trading partners, mitigate external risks, adapt to the new conditions of the global economy, and strengthen the country’s strategic autonomy. These measures enable Russia to adapt to restrictive measures, develop domestic production, and establish new logistics chains, thereby enhancing the economy’s resilience and long-term development.

The study is aimed at conducting an analysis of changes in the foreign trade export-import turnover of the Russian Federation under sanctions.

Materials and methods. The research utilized statistical data from Rosstat (Russian Federal State Statistics Service) and international organizations, as well as scientific articles and analytical materials from peer-reviewed journals. Research methods included statistical analysis of export and import dynamics before and after the imposition of sanctions, comparative analysis across industries and partner countries, and SWOT analysis to assess the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with the sanctions.

Results. The paper presents an empirical generalization and analysis of structural shifts in Russia’s foreign trade system caused by unprecedented sanctions restrictions imposed by Western countries. It substantiates the primary causes and directions of the diversification of Russian export commodity flows and energy exports, the specifics of forming a new export geography amid the differentiation of partner countries, and the restructuring of the entire logistics of global commodity distribution cooperation.

Conclusion. Russia has successfully adapted to the sanctions and import contraction by diversifying fuel supplies to Asia and the Middle East. The sanctions have led to the degradation of trade and economic relations with unfriendly countries and a strengthening of cooperation with Asia, which has increased trade dependence on China, India, and Turkey, thereby elevating foreign trade risks. The development of ties with neutral countries is hampered by logistical challenges and the threats of secondary sanctions. Under pressure from the West, Russia must develop international cooperation through the participation of business structures in global and regional formats, while continuing its policy of openness and support for Russian projects abroad.

Keywords: export; import; supply chains; logistics; friendly countries; sanctions; foreign trade; USA; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F51 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:statec:021533

DOI: 10.46224/ecoc.2025.1.5

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