Forecast of medium-term dynamics of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation under sanctions pressure, assessment of the effectiveness of implemented economic support measures and risk management opportunities

Прогноз среднесрочной динамики социально-экономического развития Российской Федерации в условиях санкционного давления, оценка эффективности внедренных мер поддержки экономики и возможности управления рисками

Vedev, Aleksei (Ведев, Алексей) (), Silchuk, Aleksandra (Сильчук, Александра) (), Eremkin, Vladimir (Еремкин, Владимир) (), Tuzov, Konstantin (Тузов, Константин) () and Kovaleva, Maria (Ковалева, Мария) ()
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Vedev, Aleksei (Ведев, Алексей): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Silchuk, Aleksandra (Сильчук, Александра): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Eremkin, Vladimir (Еремкин, Владимир): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Tuzov, Konstantin (Тузов, Константин): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Kovaleva, Maria (Ковалева, Мария): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that drastic changes in economic sectors caused by sanctions pressure have affected all existing forecasts of socio-economic development. At the same time, a number of new risks have emerged. In this regard, developing a forecast for the development of economic sectors that takes into account risks and opportunities seems to be the most important task for the Russian economy. The purpose of the study was to assess the medium-term dynamics of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation under sanctions pressure and determine the effectiveness of the implemented measures to support the economy. As part of the study, a forecast was developed for the key parameters of Russia's socio-economic development, as well as an assessment of possible risks and proposed approaches to managing macroeconomic risks under sanctions. The subject of the study is the dynamics of economic development of the Russian Federation in the medium term. The research method or methodology is based on the study of key current and retrospective data on the state of economic sectors of the Russian Federation, identifying the most important risks, and constructing a medium-term forecast. Main research methods: economic observation, economic modeling, construction of economic hypotheses, historical analysis of economic phenomena, formalization and mathematization method, logical interpretation method, axiomatization method, analogy method. As a result of the work carried out, the key components of the budgetary sphere, financial and credit markets were analyzed, and an assessment was made of the impact of the deterioration of the external environment. Thus, the work presents assessments of the forecast premises and develops possible scenarios for the development of sectors of the Russian economy. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of unique forecasts for the development of sectors of the Russian economy. The recommendations obtained as a result of the study indicate the need to develop mechanisms to respond to certain risks, taking into account the possible consequences of such influence, presented in the forecast. The project was carried out as part of the research work carried out by the Laboratory of Structural Research of the Institute of Economics and Public Administration of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation in 2023.

Keywords: Sanctions; international relations; foreign policy risks; geopolitics; economic growth; investments; trade; exports; imports; inflation; exchange rates; export opportunities; budget; national security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E17 E37 E47 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2023
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