Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis

Walter Labys
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Walter Labys: Division of Resource Management, West Virginia University

Working Papers from Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University

Abstract: Commodity prices again! The twentieth century has only been the latest spectator to the impacts and importance of commodity price fluctuations. It is reasonably well known that commodity price records have come down to us from the ancient civilizations of India, Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece and Rome. Earlier in the century, formal research began on the relationships between agricultural demand, supply and prices in a market context. This research not only evolved in sophistication but extended to mineral and energy commodities. Also at the beginning of the century, some of the earliest work took place on applying statistical methods to price series. The purpose of this paper is to review how this progress has contributed to analyzing commodity markets and prices and to solving price forecasting problems, concentrating on more recent advances in econometric modeling and time series analysis. Attention is also paid to spatial developments that have implications for regional price modeling.

Keywords: commodity prices; price trends; price cycles; price volatility; futures markets; time series analysis; econometric models; mathematical models; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C2 C3 C5 C6 Q10 Q30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2005
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