Can the traditional Asian US dollar peg exchange rate regime be extended to include the Japanese yen?

Colm Kearney and Cal Muckley

Centre for Financial Markets Working Papers from Research Repository, University College Dublin

Abstract: Using daily data for a select set of four Asian exchange rates, namely the Hong Kong dollar, the Singapore dollar, the Taiwan dollar and the Thailand baht, from October 1985 to October 2002, we apply principal components analysis and the O-GARCH model to describe the evolution and persistence in the correlations over time. We also estimate 2-, 3- and 4-variable multivariate GARCH models, without imposing the assumption of constant correlations, to investigate volatility interaction amongst the currencies. To allow for fat tails in the distributions of exchange rate changes, we use the multivariate student-t distribution in maximising our log-likelihood functions. Our results indicate the possibility of designing an Asian exchange rate system involving a number of the region’s currencies.

Keywords: Multivariate GARCH models; Exchange rate systems; International economic integration--Econometric models; Foreign exchange--Econometric models; Multivariate analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rru:cfmwps:10197/1145

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