The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Development of Wheat and Rye Prices: An Analysis for the Period 2018-2024

Beata Kaplanová, Vilém KovaÄ and Michal IÅ¡tok

Littera Scripta, 2025, vol. 18, issue 2, 1-15

Abstract: The aim of the work is to assess the long-term development of wheat and rye prices in the period from 1 December 2018 to 1 April 2024 and to analyse the impact of the war in Ukraine on these prices. Analyses of the price development of these commodities are important for assessing economic stability and food availability. The prices are obtained by content analysis and then plotted in graphs. Using linear regression, it was found that the prices were not time dependent, Also, the prices of both commodities are found to be stable and very similar until the period of war in Ukraine. The latter had a significant impact on wheat and rye prices, with prices doubling after the start of the conflict. Subsequently, prices started to fall again, indicating market adaptation to the new conditions. Limitations of the study include the limited scope of the available data and the potential bias of the results due to the effects of other factors. Further research would benefit from including an extension of the analysis to include other influencing factors and increasing the frequency of data collection for more detailed analysis.

Keywords: Wheat; rye; price development; linear regression; war in Ukraine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rsg:littra:2025-008

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