Demographic policy in conditions of depopulation (the example of Poland)

Zdzisław Sirojć

Littera Scripta, 2025, vol. 18, issue 2

Abstract: This article provides a comprehensive analysis of Poland's demographic policy in the context of growing depopulation, combining normative frameworks (ICPD, EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, Polish Constitution) with cross-country comparisons (Czech Republic, Germany, Spain) and conclusions from demographic literature. It has been shown that cash transfers, although they reduce child poverty, do not permanently change fertility trajectories if they are not intertwined with "everyday institutions": a dense and accessible ECEC network, housing availability, gender equality in the labor market, and employment stability. The mechanism of the "delay loop" of first birth has been identified as the main channel reducing the period and cohort TFR, reinforced by housing shortages and instability in early careers. The role of migration as a buffer and catalyst was also highlighted, provided that real integration (language, validation of qualifications, housing) is achieved. A portfolio of reforms was proposed: recalibration of benefits (support for the first child), treating ECEC as work infrastructure, a "use-it-or- lose-it" component in parental leave for fathers, housing policy (social rental and fixed- rate loans), public funding of ART as an element of public health, and an "anchor" in parental leave for fathers.-it" component in parental leave for fathers, housing policy (social rental and fixed-rate loans), public funding of ART as an element of public health, and a "demographic anchor" in the budget with cyclical evaluation (every 24 months). The conclusion is that an effective demographic policy is a development strategy a restructuring of everyday institutions rather than transfer arithmetic; sustainable fertility is inseparable from an egalitarian organization of the life cycle.

Keywords: Demographic policy; fertility; ECEC (nurseries and kindergartens); housing; gender equality; labor market; migration and integration; in vitro/ART; reproductive health; depopulation; aging population; governance and evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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