A Note on Prediction Markets

Julia Mortera and A. Philip Dawid

No 215, Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' from Department of Economics - University Roma Tre

Abstract: In a prediction market, individuals can sequentially place bets on the outcome of a future event. This leaves a trail of personal probabilities for the event, each being conditional on the current individual's private background knowledge and on the previously announced probabilities of other individuals, which give partial information about their private knowledge. By means of theory and examples, we revisit some results in this area. In particular, we consider the case of two individuals, who start with the same overall probability distribution but di erent private information, and then take turns in updating their probabilities. We note convergence of the announced probabilities to a limiting value, which may or may not be the same as that based on pooling their private information.

Keywords: consensus; expert opinion; information aggregation; probability forecast; sequential prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 D8 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15
Date: 2017-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0215

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