Expectations, vote choice and opinion stability since the 2016 Brexit referendum

Charlotte Grynberg, Stefanie Walter and Fabio Wasserfallen
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Charlotte Grynberg: Department of International Relations, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
Stefanie Walter: Institute of Political Science, University of Zurich, Switzerland

European Union Politics, 2020, vol. 21, issue 2, 255-275

Abstract: A surprising development in the post-referendum Brexit process has been that vote intentions have remained largely stable, despite the cumbersome withdrawal negotiations. We examine this puzzle by analyzing the role of voters’ expectations about the European Union’s willingness to accommodate the UK after the pro-Brexit vote. Using data from the British Election Study, we explore how these expectations are updated over time, and how they are related to vote intentions. We find that voters who were more optimistic about the European Union’s response were more likely to vote Leave. Over the course of the negotiations, Leavers have become more disillusioned. These adjustments, however, have not translated into shifts in vote intentions. Overall, we find evidence that motivated reasoning is an important driver of public opinion on Brexit.

Keywords: Brexit; disintegration; expectations; motivated reasoning; referendum (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:21:y:2020:i:2:p:255-275

DOI: 10.1177/1465116519892328

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