EPA’s Scenarios for Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Warming

Daniel A. Lashof

The Energy Journal, 1991, vol. 12, issue 1, 125-146

Abstract: While it is not possible to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations immediately, a global commitment to reducing emissions would decrease the risks of global warming regardless of uncertainties about the response of the climate system. Scenario analyses conducted by EPA for a Report to Congress on Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate indicate that if no policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions are undertaken, the equivalent of a doubling of carbon dioxide would occur between 2030 and 2040, and the Earth might be committed to a global warming of 2-4°C(3-7°F) by 2025 and 3-6°C(4-10°F) by 2050. Early application of existing and emergingtechnologies designed among other things, to increase the efficiency of energy use, expand the use of non-fossil energy sources, reverse deforestation, and phase out chlorofluorocarbons, could reduce the global warming commitment in 2025 by about one-fourth, and the rate of climatic change during the next century by at least 60%. A global commitment to rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions could stabilize the concentrations of these gases by the middle of the next century, perhaps limiting global warming to less than 2°C(3°F).

Keywords: Greenhouse gases; EPA policy; Techology choice; Climate change; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1991
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:enejou:v:12:y:1991:i:1:p:125-146

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-8

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