Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions

James D. Hamilton

The Energy Journal, 1985, vol. 6, issue 1, 97-116

Abstract: Turbulent petroleum markets and poor economic performance have been making headlines for the last decade. Three major oil shocks (1973-1974, 1979, and 1980-1981) have each been followed by major recessions. While the magnitude and violence of recent oil price changes are unique in postwar experience, the phenomenon of political instability producing disruptions in petroleum supply is not. Hamilton (1983a) observed that all but one of the recessions in the United States since World War II were preceded-typically by about nine months-by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum (see Figure 1).

Keywords: Oil price shocks; Recessions; Oil price volatility; Oil supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1985
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:enejou:v:6:y:1985:i:1:p:97-116

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-9

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