A Critical Review of Some Recent Australian Regional Climate Reports

John D McLean

Energy & Environment, 2006, vol. 17, issue 1, 13-28

Abstract: Regional Climate Reports prepared by the CSIRO for five states and the Northern Territory of Australia have been accepted by governments for planning and policy purposes without critical analysis. This review examines the credibility of those reports, in particular the historical trends they describe and the accuracy of the numerical models that are used for both hindcasting and forecasting climate to 2100. The reports are found to be lacking in four crucial areas; by the inclusion of misleading trends, omission of relevant influences, use of poorly performing models and, critically, unjustified claims of accuracy for their output projections. As planning tools the CSIRO model-derived forecasts are of doubtful if any value. Caveat Emptor.

Date: 2006
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:17:y:2006:i:1:p:13-28

DOI: 10.1260/095830506776318787

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