Environmental assessment of renewable energy scenarios for a sustainable future in Turkey

Hasan Saygın, Hasan V Oral and Serkan Kardaşlar

Energy & Environment, 2020, vol. 31, issue 2, 237-255

Abstract: In this study, we aim to present the outcomes of the environmental impact assessment of renewable energy scenarios relevant with the sustainable perception in Turkey using energy modelling for the period 2014–2050. Therefore, we use the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System model and develop three scenarios as follows: Reference Scenario, Alternative Scenario-I, and Alternative Scenario-II. We find that the total social costs in Reference Scenario, Alternative Scenario-I and Alternative Scenario-II are $88.75 billion, $76.73 billion and $71.15 billion per annum, respectively. Self-sufficiency of the country as the political impact factor in Reference Scenario is expected to be 10.5% in 2050, while it is 41.4% in Alternative Scenario-I and 54% in Alternative Scenario-II. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, Reference Scenario leads to 736 million metric tons of CO 2 -eq per annum, which is calculated to be 77.4% and 99.5% higher than Alternative Scenario-I and Alternative Scenario-II, respectively. We conclude that it is a necessity for Turkey to employ its renewable energy potential that it possesses in abundance with efficiency measures. Otherwise, missing this paradigm shift process may stir up a hornet’s nest of harder sectoral challenges and externalities in the near future of the country.

Keywords: Sustainability; renewable energy; environmental assessment; energy scenarios; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:31:y:2020:i:2:p:237-255

DOI: 10.1177/0958305X19855992

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