Interurban Migration and the Dynamics of a System of Cities: 1. The Stochastic Framework with an Application to the French Urban System

G Haag, M Munz, D Pumain, L Sanders and Th Saint-Julien
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D Pumain: Institut National d'Études Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, F-75675 Paris, France
L Sanders: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 13 rue du Four, F-75006 Paris, France
Th Saint-Julien: University of Paris I, 13 rue du Four, F-75006 Paris, France

Environment and Planning A, 1992, vol. 24, issue 2, 181-198

Abstract: A stochastic framework for the modelling of interurban migration is presented. The model is an extension of a recently developed master-equation approach to interregional migration. The population dynamics of the French urban system, described by a set of 78 cities, is investigated within the period 1954–82. The importance of synergy effects (self-reinforcing collective effects) as well as socioeconomic macrovariables for the understanding of urban dynamics becomes obvious. A forecasting of urban dynamics (relative urban population, growth rates of the cities) for a closer period, year 2002, by using two different kinds of scenarios, confirm this result and give further insight into the nested structure of urban systems.

Date: 1992
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:envira:v:24:y:1992:i:2:p:181-198

DOI: 10.1068/a240181

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